The Karnataka election was focused on local issues instead of national issues and the Congress won.
Karnataka, which was considered as the gateway to the south for the BJP, went out of its hands. Even the stormy campaigning of Prime Minister Narendra Modi could not save this stronghold of BJP.
Congress this time showed good sense in identifying the issues. The Congress raised the issue of rising inflation and unemployment.
The schemes that the party had promised to implement for women after winning showed the effect and the way was cleared for the Congress to come back to power in Karnataka after five years.
The confidence of the Congress has increased a lot because of the decision given by the voters of Karnataka. This increased morale of his will prove to be helpful in confronting the BJP first in the assembly elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and then in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The election results of Karnataka have proved that the people here do not give a chance to any party for the second time in a row. This series has been going on since 1985.
People voted in large numbers in the elections held on 10th May. The voting percentage in the state was 73.1. Never before had this much voting happened in Karnataka.
The special thing is that this time the voters have given a clear mandate. Like 2018, this time there is no situation of a hung assembly.
Important aspect of Karnataka elections
The special thing about this election in Karnataka was that the Congress focused on local issues. He did not divert attention towards national issues. While PM Narendra Modi constantly wanted to drag the Congress to play in his field by referring to the ‘double engine’ government and the ‘Kerala Story’.
Political analyst Radhika Ramasheshan told BBC Hindi, “The opposition remained focused on the issue of governance. Compared to this strategy, the BJP appeared to have lost its way. It had no clue about this bet by the opposition.
He said that in 2008, BS Yeddyurappa single-handedly brought BJP to power. At that time promises were made for agricultural reform in the state.
“He didn’t play the religious card like Basavaraj Bommai, who was doing it to appear more loyal to the central leadership,” she says.
“Issues like Hijab controversy, action against Muslims who open shops in temple fairs and comparison of Bajrang Dal with Bajrang Bali became the hallmark of the Bommai government. The issue of Bajrang Dal was even mentioned by the PM.”
Congress succeeded in sensing the mood of the people
Sandeep Shastri, pro vice-chancellor of Jagran Lakeside University and political analyst, said, “The Congress raised the slogan of Jai Bajrang Bali in the last phase of its campaigning. Saying that when there is a crisis, you go to Bajrang Bali. Congress rarely does this.
Shastri says, “The Congress got the mood of the people right. People were unhappy and the party projected it well. It is generally seen that Congress gets trapped in the narrative of BJP’s campaign. But this time he retaliated.”
“Energy, planning and strategy all three were visible in this campaign. Overall, it can be said that the strategy adopted by BJP failed.”
Like in Himachal, the Congress also paid attention to women’s issues in Karnataka. Of the five guarantee schemes, two are related to women. It directly affected women.
The Congress has promised Rs 2000 per month to the women head of the BPL family and free travel for women in state buses.
Ramasheshan said, “BJP had distributed free gas cylinders under the Ujjwala scheme, but due to increase in the price of gas several times, its effect was lost. It was a cruel joke played on the poor.
changed strategy
Political analysts say that this time the Congress played its card like Clinton played against George Bush in the 1992 US elections.
Clinton’s team made sure that the issues were related to the concerns of the people. The team did not pay attention to political issues. Clinton Strategists Tell Party Activists ‘It’s the Economy Stupid!’
Shastri believes that Congress’s five-guarantee scheme worked as well as the Clinton team’s strategy.
Congress has promised to provide 200 units of free electricity every month to BPL families. Along with this, it has also been announced to give unemployment allowance to graduates and diploma holders for two years. The promise of giving 10 kg of rice every month to the members of BPL families is also there in the manifesto.
The BJP government earlier used to give seven kg of rice under the Anna Bhagya scheme, but later it was reduced to four kg. The poor became sad because of this.
Ramasheshan believes that the issue of forty per cent commission was such an issue that affected every section of the society. Corruption has been an evergreen issue.
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reservation dispute
The Basavaraj Bommai government tinkered with the reservation policy. Along with this, she got stuck in those economic issues, which were troubling the people. This created a situation among the people which is called ‘Rainbow Social Alliance’. ,
“With Siddaramaiah’s Ahind equation (minorities, OBCs and Dalits in Kannada), a chunk of the Vokkaliga and Lingayat votes came together and the ‘rainbow social coalition’ that the BJP could not cut through,” says Shastri.
Barring the coastal areas, if we look at the range of Congress’s victory, we will find that the BJP lost the votes of Dalits, which Yeddyurappa had won in 2008.
Yeddyurappa had ended the inroads of the Congress among Dalits by giving reserved seats to the people of the Madiga community. In return, a promise was taken from the Madigas that they would help the Lingayat candidates in the nearest general seats.
Since then the Congress had failed to get the support of the Madigas. The victory of the BJP in the districts of North Karnataka proves that the support it had from most of the Lingayats also did not stay with it this time.
It is believed that 65 per cent of the Lingayat votes go to the BJP, the rest go to the Congress. The results show that there has been a dent in the support of the Lingayats to the BJP.
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Panchamshalis did not support?
A section of Lingayats was also upset with the BJP’s stand on the issue of demand for separate reservation by the Panchamshalis.
Panchamshali is the largest group of Lingayats. He did not want to mix himself with the rest of the Lingayats, but the Bommai government took back the four percent reservation for Muslims and distributed two percent each among Lingayats and Vokkaligas.
The issue of reservation came up after Yeddyurappa, the biggest leader of the Lingayat community, was sidelined by the BJP. Professor Shastri said that by sidelining Yeddyurappa, the national leaders took over the reins of the campaign.
Yeddyurappa was later fielded in the election campaign, but it seemed from his body language that he was not given enough attention. He was in the secondary role.
On the other hand, the Congress had promised that it would increase the 50 per cent reservation to 75 per cent.
BBCkarnataka election
other issues
One of the reasons for defeating BJP was the disintegration of Janata Dal (Secular) in the old Mysuru area.
The main challenger here was the Congress. BJP put full emphasis here under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi. Amit Shah also came so that he can win the party in the area where the people of Vokkaliga community have a strong presence.
Shastri said, “In a way, the contest has become two-sided. BJP has won some seats where there was a contest between three or four candidates, but wherever the Janata Dal (Secular) proved weak, the bulk of the people’s votes went to the Congress instead of the BJP.”
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Means more seats in North Karnataka
Now it has been decided that the party which wins in North Karnataka will form the government.
The Congress managed to win 33 out of 50 seats in the Bombay-Karnataka districts. It also got 26 out of 40 seats in the Hyderabad-Karnataka districts. In old Mysuru district also it got success in most of the seats.
The BJP’s performance has been good in Karnataka’s coastal and Bengaluru urban seats.
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national impact of elections
Ramasheshan says, “It has been an encouraging election for the Congress. This has instilled more confidence in Rahul Gandhi.”
“At the same time, it has given a message to the BJP that big state leaders like Yeddyurappa in Karnataka and Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan should not be curtailed. Orders from the Center do not work in the states.”
AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge had told BBC Hindi that there was no need for the PM to come to Karnataka and talk like a double engine government. While the matter was completely local.
Kharge had told the BBC, “It would be better if the prime minister concentrates on his work. Do what they have been elected to do. He cannot be the chairman, mayor or chief minister of a municipality.
After the success of Karnataka, Congress said that the party will adopt the same policy in the states of North India where assembly elections are going to be held.
big question
Now the question is, how will the Congress view Amit Shah’s statement that if the Congress wins, there will be communal riots in the state.