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Bad weather: Scientists had already warned, but we did not warn


Oct 1, 2022


In the past, while Pakistan was reeling from the destruction caused by the worst floods in its history, terrible rains were also going on in south-west China. On the other hand, people in the Texas city of Dallas, USA, on the other side of the earth, were trying to recover from the horrific 10 inches of rain in a single day last month.

In all these places, there was one thing in the disaster caused by the torrential rains – there was deadly heat and drought going on everywhere just before the rain. That is, all these areas were swinging between the two extremes of the weather. Scientists say that both extreme heat and heavy rains are closely related to each other and due to climate change, they are getting a very serious nature.

Record high temperatures in urban areas of Europe and devastating floods—some in areas that were unprepared—a huge increase in damage caused by cyclones, deadly in poor areas of Africa amid growing global drought Drought and famine This rugged nature of the weather on the earth is constantly taking a dangerous form, in which every season is reaching the extreme.

For the past few summers, this kind of sight is being seen continuously, isn’t it?

But it’s not like you weren’t warned. In fact, ten years ago, the top scientists of the United Nations had predicted and warned something similar to happen with the weather.

This report changed the way the world thinks about the damage caused by global warming. The UN-linked Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its 2012 special report, “Changing climates will also change the number, speed, extent, duration and timing of extreme weather events. This will lead to an unprecedented increase in severe weather events.” The report said that heat wave conditions would increase, drought events would intensify, floods caused by torrential rains and cloudbursts would intensify, cyclones would increase, and seasonal disasters causing undue hardship to the people would increase.

These warnings of ten years ago seem to be becoming reality in front. Often such warnings are taken as far-fetched, something like ‘what is going to happen now, will not matter to our lives, or, will be seen when.’ But even the scientists who gave the warning did not think that they would take the form of reality so soon.

The floods in Pakistan were so severe that they submerged nearly one-third of the country. Millions of people became homeless and more than 1300 lives were lost according to official figures. Scientists say that the start of the horror in Pakistan was actually due to unusual heat. In April and May, the temperature remained above 40 degree Celsius for a long time in many places. In Jacobabad, one day the temperature had reached 51 degree Celsius. In those days Pakistan had become the hottest area in the world.

But the hot air itself also holds more moisture. That is why the meteorologists had warned that after such a severe heat, the rains would also be fierce during the monsoon days. The same thing happened. One, the monsoon arrived early and then it rained three times the average annual rainfall. Sindh and Balochistan received five times the average rainfall. At the same time, a low pressure area was established there in the Arabian Sea. This kind of low pressure is also very unusual there. Due to this, there was a lot of rain in the coastal areas. Then due to the heat, glaciers melted in the northern snowy areas. That water also flowed down and reached the bottom. There was also an effect of La-Nina, due to which the effect of monsoon in India and Pakistan is more. The water of the Indian Ocean was also hot due to the scorching heat. The condition of the monsoon that came in this situation was the same as what UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres named ‘monsoon brought with steroids’.

Infrastructural weakness, lack of flood warning system and no preparedness for such a disaster – such reasons should also be responsible for the destruction, that is another matter.

Scientists agree that heatwaves have been intensifying around the world and are occurring continuously. Due to this, the process of vapor formation from both sea and land has accelerated. Warm climates also store more moisture, so vapor builds up and accumulates until the clouds can carry more weight and then burst. Therefore, in a hot season, there can be both drought and then flood at the same place.

A similar situation happened in Dallas in America, where there was a severe drought for three months, crops were destroyed and people had to kill even cattle because they had nothing to feed. The earth hardened and a crust formed and began to burst from place to place. Then suddenly in the third week of August, 10 inches of rain fell in a single day. If the ground dries out excessively, it becomes hard and then it is unable to absorb water, it becomes exactly like concrete. So the water that falls keeps on spreading, keeps on filling up and spreads rapidly in the populated areas. Similar flash floods have occurred in four more places in the US since July.

Here China had the worst summer of six decades. The entire area of ​​the Yangtze River basin was so short of water and electricity that the clouds were being ‘seeded’. But now suddenly there is a danger of flooding in southwest China.

The IPCC report warned of similar weather events ten years ago. Princeton University’s Michael Oppenhammer, one of the scientists who wrote the report, said that the report did what such a report should have done, to warn. But some governments gave it preference, some did not. Maybe people don’t care until something happens very close to them.

Guess what, the annual average of seasonal disasters causing damage of at least $1 billion in the US alone was 8.4 in the decade before this report was written, that is, an average of 8.4 such disasters each year, but as of writing the report. The average was 14.3. It can be counted how much climate change is weakening our economies.

Actually, now it cannot even be said that science is telling us all these things. Now all the warnings are proving true and we are feeling everything around us.






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